Sales are up just over 225% when you compare the first sixth months of 2010 to 2009. In 09′ there were just fourteen home sales compared to 32 home sales this year. The first 6 months of 2010 equaled the entire amount of home sales for the year in 2009. How does that sound for an improving market?

As for condos and land the numbers are not nearly as good. In the same time periods used for home sales, condo sales totaled 3 in 2010 and just 2 in 2009. Land sales, there was only one in 09′ and 2010 has seen 2.

Here is where the debate comes in: Has the market really turned? Web site traffic is down, sales are up. Is the buyer pool stronger because only the most financially sound buyers are left? Did the tax credits that the government had in place really drive sales? Now that the credits are over will sales drop? Are web hits down because the tax credits have ended?

This is what I see in the micro market of Eastman with observations of the Upper Valley and New London/Lake Sunapee mixed in.

May was most likely the quietest May I will ever see. At least lets hope so!! June started off slow but finished strong. The activity I see in my office has been steady to fairly busy. The mid priced home is no longer a non existing market. There has been several homes in the $350,000 to $550,000 price range that have gone under agreement. There always seems to be some action in the sub $200,000 range. Currently the selection of Eastman Lake waterfront homes is down and it would be good to get some inventory in that category. ($500,000 plus with good water access)

I think land sales are down for the obvious reason. Why build when you can buy existing for less?? Condo sales? No that’s a good question. Are sales down because of the maintenance fees? Are buyers looking at homes and just see better values than a condo? There are some great prices on Eastman condos but can buyers be watching their monthly dollar expense so closely and they are not figuring for repairs on a home making a home look inexpensive?  Home maintenance is not a monthly expense but it still adds up by the end of a year?

I can not understand why condos are so over looked right now. Maybe the vacation buyer has really been taken out of the market? If that’s the case than condo sales will remain slow until those buyers come back. About 75% of Eastman condos are vacation homes.

OK enough typing, home sales are up HUGE and that’s GREAT news!!

From January 1st, 2009 through May 31st 2009 there were nine homes and one condo sold. For the same time period this year twenty six homes have sold and 3 condos sold.

That’s nearly a 300% increase in sales! If we can keep this pace up, there will be 62 home sales this year. That’s not a bad year at all.

Condo sales are better than last year but still seem to be lagging the home market. If we figure our average sales for most years, totals of over 20 units a year, this year we are on pace to sell a total of 7. That’s not good, but condo selling season is just getting under way. I am confident that by years end, sales in condos will be respectable.

Here’s some information that is not in the main stream media just yet. HEADLINE: Housing Starts Rise 5.8% Yes this was a national headline and for April that was great news. Even single family home starts rose 10.2%. As you read further multifamily starts declined 18.6% but the biggest number that was buried was the fact that new home building permits, which gauge future activity declined 11.5% to an annual rate not seen since October 09′.

The next big miss by major media was that mortgage applications dropped 27.1% compared to the previous week and was 24.1% lower than the same week last year. It was actually the lowest level of applications since May 1997!

Even while mortgage rates have dropped a half point or more in recent weeks, mortgage applications drop to the lowest level in thirteen years?

Where is this market going? Non of the so called experts seem to know. One head line read “Housing Prices Could Rise 12.4% By 2014″. This is based on an average of 100 analysts and market strategists. Some of these so called strategists worked for banks and one prediction from a banker was home prices will rise 37% by the end of 2014. Is this guy serious? It would be great if he was right but I’m not going out on that limb. Other analysts had more bearish thoughts, predictions of still more declines of 18%.

I’m not sure where were going on a national level but what is happening here in Eastman? As long as there is a large inventory , sellers have little pricing power. With 86 homes and 34 condos currently on the market, the property’s that will sell are the ones that have the greatest value (nicest home for least cost).

It appears to me that locally, it’s still a buyers market and price appreciation is not going to happen in 2010.

These are two of the most popular questions I am asked on a daily basis. Here are some numbers that prove Eastman home sales have turned the corner.

From January 1st, 2009 through May 1st, 2009 there were 5 homes that sold in Eastman. From January 1st, 2010 through May 1st, 2010 there have been 17. That’s correct a more than 300% increase in the year over year time period. Another thing that makes this recovery look good is the amount of homes contingent or pending. Contingent is when there is a Purchase and Sales agreement on a home and the buyer and seller have agreed on a price but there still contingencies that need to be completed. IE; Financing, home and septic inspections etc. Pending is when an agreement has passes through the contingency stage and the sale is eminent. Pending home sales stand at 6 and contingent homes total 9.

The likely hood of all these homes making it through to closing is not 100% but it is very possible that Eastman home sales will reach the low thirty’s in the  first sixth months of the year. This will equal or surpass the total number of homes sold in all of last year! For 2009 there were 32 homes sold in Eastman.

Now the question is will the market continue to be strong? The predictions for higher interest rates hasn’t happened yet. So that is a very positive sign. The home buyer tax credits have expired so only time will tell if there is a slow down in the market. My guess is the tax credit will be a non issue here in Eastman. My reasoning is that Eastman is really not an area that draws first time home buyers. It does happen, several of my sales over the last few years have been to first time buyers. I would put Eastman first time home buyer sales at less than 5% of all homes sold.

I believe that we might see a modest slowdown in sales based on economic activity. Gas is almost $3.00 a gallon. Dartmouth is still reducing it’s work force. How bad is the huge oil spill in the Gulf going to affect the economy? I would think gas and oil prices will rise even more.

I think we get to at least 50 homes sold by years end in the Eastman Community and that’s not a bad year!

If your a seller that wants to see how their house compares to others that are currently on the market or a buyer wanting to compare a house you are considering buying, this is a great tool. Just follow the steps and within minutes you will receive a detailed report of what is actively on the market or recent sold properties that compare to data that you entered.

This is really easy to do, give it a try. TRY IT

So I broke out my computer and pulled up my most recent settlement statement or more commonly referred to as a HUD statement.

The biggest expense that a seller has is the commission paid to the Real Estate Broker. I know it’s expensive but there is an unbelievable amount of work that goes into selling a property. After the commission the next biggest expense would be the New Hampshire State Transfer Tax. The rate is 1.5% of the sale price usually split between the buyer and seller. Let’s take a $300,000 sale price. Multiply buy 1.5% and divide by two and the buyer and seller would pay $2250 that goes to good old New Hampshire.

Legal fees usually are not much for a seller. The seller has the deed prepared and barring any unusual circumstance the cost runs about $125-150. Town taxes can vary widely depending on the date of closing. Some time a seller will get a credit back for pre-paid taxes and other times they will have to pay in. Like I said it all depends on the date of closing and the tax billing cycle.

Most closing the seller will see a credit or money coming back to them for fuel in storage. If you use oil or LP Gas and there is fuel in the tanks, the buyer will reimburse the seller for that fuel. Association fees are another credit back to the seller. If you live in a community like Eastman, sellers will get money back as long as their dues are paid in advance.

And of course if there is a mortgage balance, the balance must be paid in full at the time of transfer. The mortgage is secured as a lien on the property and is recorded at the County Registry. This really isn’t an expense but a settling of debt.

This might not be the entire list of expenses for all property transfers but for the basic home or condo, this should give most sellers a good idea of what to expect.

Home sales dropped 7.2% from December to January but the good news is January 09′ to January 10′ sales were up 11.5%
I see this as a positive number as inventory seems to be declining also.

As for the Northeast, existing-home sales fell 10.9 percent to an annual pace of 820,000 in January but are 22.4% above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $245,300, a gain of 8.8% from January 2009. When prices start to go up that is never a bad thing.

On a more local basis. January was a so much better this year than last. In the Eastman Community there were 5 home sales in Jan. 10′ vs. 0 home sales in Jan. 09′. There were also 2 condo sales this January vs. 0 units sold in 09′

Statistically these numbers are staggering but I think they are way to unrealistic to put percentages on them. Here’s something to consider though. It took, starting Jan. 1st through May 31st to get a total of 10 home and condo sales in Eastman last year. Are we going to have a better year than last. I believe so! Will prices start to increase? That, I do not anticipate. There is just to much inventory on the market for prices to increase. Price stabilization? Maybe… it will depend on weather we sell 40 units or 60 units.  If we get into the 60’s for total unit sales that would help to cut the inventory, which will help pricing power.

I’m including the State, Merrimack and Sullivan Counties Sales Stats Jan-2010. As you will see on page one, all trend lines are still heading in the wrong direction. Again, I am not a huge fan of days on market as that number can be manipulated several ways. If a listing changes from one agency to another. If a listing is withdrawn then entered as new after 30 days (which is perfectly legal). There are others but you get my point. Cost per sq. foot and median sales price are good to look at.

What I really want to talk about is what has happened to Eastman in the last year to year and a half. Here are some great numbers that to look at:

After the financial crisis of September 08′ buyers that were in the middle of a transaction kept going and stayed the course. In the fourth quarter there were 10 total transactions, 6 homes and 4 condos were sold. A respectable number considering buyers basically vanished. We didn’t see the affects of the melt down until the first half of 09′ particularly the first quarter. There was one condo sale and three homes sold. By the end of the second quarter there were 11 home sales and one condo for a total of twelve for the quarter. The total home/condo sales for the first half of 2009 is 16.

The third quarter 09′ things in the financial markets were starting settle down and the stock market was showing signs of recovery bouncing as much as 20% from the lows of the year. This stabilization brought out some home buyers along with tax incentives, low interest rates and fallen home prices. Buyers were looking, but the weather played a roll as the early summer months brought plenty of rain. From 07/01/09 through 09/30/09, six homes and four condos sold. A slight drop from the previous quarter.

Nicer weather and the looming end to tax credits brought buyers out the decision to buy was made. There were 17 total transactions. Twelve homes and five condos were sold. This momentum seems to have carried over to this year as the first five weeks of 2010 we have had five home sales and two condo sales, far surpassing 09’s first quarter already.

As long as interest rates stay around 5% we should see this momentum carry on. The forecast is for rates to rise to 6% or higher and I believe that will stop the rebound in housing sales. I can only hope we don’t see a fourth quarter like the first quarter or 09

Eastman Home Sales Chart

Grantham home sales were up month over month mostly due to the strength in Eastman home sales. We have seen a significant jump in activity locally. I know that 2009 started off in a terrible way. As bad as it was in the first few months, I know that we finished strong.

If you do download the PDF, I’ve also included the sales stats for Sullivan and Merrimack Counties. The most interesting stat I see in the county breakdown is that fewer new listings are coming on the market. This seems to be a trend as I have noticed that for several months. If this trend continues, the total inventory will become less, as homes sell there will be fewer and fewer choices and that will translate into pricing stabilization and even strength.

I’ve said this many times before but a shrinking inventory and interest rates that are bound to rise, now is the time to buy. If there is any downward price movement in homes, and I doubt there will be much, it will cost you so much more if you get a higher interest rate.

Sales Stats November 09′