The numbers are finally in. Although on a national level they are not great, locally they are not bad.

Home sales dropped 7.2% from December to January but the good news is January 09′ to January 10′ sales were up 11.5%
I see this as a positive number as inventory seems to be declining also.

As for the Northeast, existing-home sales fell 10.9 percent to an annual pace of 820,000 in January but are 22.4% above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $245,300, a gain of 8.8% from January 2009. When prices start to go up that is never a bad thing.

On a more local basis. January was a so much better this year than last. In the Eastman Community there were 5 home sales in Jan. 10′ vs. 0 home sales in Jan. 09′. There were also 2 condo sales this January vs. 0 units sold in 09′

Statistically these numbers are staggering but I think they are way to unrealistic to put percentages on them. Here’s something to consider though. It took, starting Jan. 1st through May 31st to get a total of 10 home and condo sales in Eastman last year. Are we going to have a better year than last. I believe so! Will prices start to increase? That, I do not anticipate. There is just to much inventory on the market for prices to increase. Price stabilization? Maybe… it will depend on weather we sell 40 units or 60 units.  If we get into the 60’s for total unit sales that would help to cut the inventory, which will help pricing power.

I’m including the State, Merrimack and Sullivan Counties Sales Stats Jan-2010. As you will see on page one, all trend lines are still heading in the wrong direction. Again, I am not a huge fan of days on market as that number can be manipulated several ways. If a listing changes from one agency to another. If a listing is withdrawn then entered as new after 30 days (which is perfectly legal). There are others but you get my point. Cost per sq. foot and median sales price are good to look at.

The recent word for the Federal Reserve (12/17/09) stated that short term interest rates will continue to remain low for “an extended period”.

This is interpreted by many that this means months. Well this sounds good but the reality is interest rates have been creeping up. As recently as the week of November 16th-20th interest rates were as low 4.6% for conventional, 30 year fixed rate loans.

As of this week it is hard to find a loan rate under 5%, most rates are closer to 5.25%. This is a minimum of a half point jump in a month. It doesn’t seem like much but a half point is a half point! On $150,000 loan that equals $45.87 a month, $550.44 a year and over the life of the loan the additional cost is over $16,500

So my point is if your out there waiting for home prices to drop just that little bit more because you want to buy at the bottom the rate you might get on your loan my cost you more in the long run. My feeling is from what I see in this local market is we have bottomed and home prices have stabilized. There is just to much inventory for prices to start to rise but I believe the price depreciation we have been seeing is coming to an end.

The state wide numbers are finally here. Why it took until the first day of October is beyond me.

The good news is, trends are going in the right direction. Looking back to September 08′ and September 07′ we see that the number of active listings is getting smaller. In 07′ there were over 4,415 listings, 08′ there was 3,969. At the end of August 09′ there were 3,803. I see this as a leveling off of inventory. For sellers that is good news.

The average days on market also seems to be leveling off. For August 09′ the average days on market is 137, just about the same as last month and three days less than Aug. 08 yet higher then 07′ when that average days on market was 126.

The good news for buyers is the trend in home sale price has stared to fall again. What could be the peak for Hew Hampshire housing for 2009, June the median sales price was $200,000. At the end of August the median price was, $192,000 down 4% from the June peak, yet up from the February low over 15%. Yes, I checked my figures, the median home price is up over 15% from the bottom in February.

More good news for sellers, the average selling price per square foot is still trending up! The average is $135.27 up 18% from the Feb. low of $115 per square foot. As good as it sounds the current number is still lower from 08′, down 6%, and down 18% from August 07′.

Now to look at the Eastman Real Estate Market.

What we have seen so far for 2009 is that total sales are down but things seem to be picking up. Year to date there have been six condo sales. Yes this is a low number but in the month of September there were 5 condos that went contingent (under agreement) and one that went pending (sale imminent). In one month we doubled the sales production of the entire year!

Homes sales are no different. For the first 9 months of the year there were 21 homes sold. In the months of August and September we have 7 homes that are contingent or pending. This equals 33% of 2009 home sales, equaled in about six weeks.

Let’s hope the trend continues. It seems like it will, as I am getting daily calls and email questions on my listings. If your a buyer it certainly looks like the bottom has been hit. If your a seller the worst seems to be over and pricing seems to have stabilized and sales look like they are starting to pick up.