Eastman Real Estate Blog

The numbers are finally in. Although on a national level they are not great, locally they are not bad.

Home sales dropped 7.2% from December to January but the good news is January 09′ to January 10′ sales were up 11.5%
I see this as a positive number as inventory seems to be declining also.

As for the Northeast, existing-home sales fell 10.9 percent to an annual pace of 820,000 in January but are 22.4% above a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $245,300, a gain of 8.8% from January 2009. When prices start to go up that is never a bad thing.

On a more local basis. January was a so much better this year than last. In the Eastman Community there were 5 home sales in Jan. 10′ vs. 0 home sales in Jan. 09′. There were also 2 condo sales this January vs. 0 units sold in 09′

Statistically these numbers are staggering but I think they are way to unrealistic to put percentages on them. Here’s something to consider though. It took, starting Jan. 1st through May 31st to get a total of 10 home and condo sales in Eastman last year. Are we going to have a better year than last. I believe so! Will prices start to increase? That, I do not anticipate. There is just to much inventory on the market for prices to increase. Price stabilization? Maybe… it will depend on weather we sell 40 units or 60 units.  If we get into the 60′s for total unit sales that would help to cut the inventory, which will help pricing power.

I’m including the State, Merrimack and Sullivan Counties Sales Stats Jan-2010. As you will see on page one, all trend lines are still heading in the wrong direction. Again, I am not a huge fan of days on market as that number can be manipulated several ways. If a listing changes from one agency to another. If a listing is withdrawn then entered as new after 30 days (which is perfectly legal). There are others but you get my point. Cost per sq. foot and median sales price are good to look at.

This is the time of month that I usually post the State & County Sales Stat.

What I really want to talk about is what has happened to Eastman in the last year to year and a half. Here are some great numbers that to look at:

After the financial crisis of September 08′ buyers that were in the middle of a transaction kept going and stayed the course. In the fourth quarter there were 10 total transactions, 6 homes and 4 condos were sold. A respectable number considering buyers basically vanished. We didn’t see the affects of the melt down until the first half of 09′ particularly the first quarter. There was one condo sale and three homes sold. By the end of the second quarter there were 11 home sales and one condo for a total of twelve for the quarter. The total home/condo sales for the first half of 2009 is 16.

The third quarter 09′ things in the financial markets were starting settle down and the stock market was showing signs of recovery bouncing as much as 20% from the lows of the year. This stabilization brought out some home buyers along with tax incentives, low interest rates and fallen home prices. Buyers were looking, but the weather played a roll as the early summer months brought plenty of rain. From 07/01/09 through 09/30/09, six homes and four condos sold. A slight drop from the previous quarter.

Nicer weather and the looming end to tax credits brought buyers out the decision to buy was made. There were 17 total transactions. Twelve homes and five condos were sold. This momentum seems to have carried over to this year as the first five weeks of 2010 we have had five home sales and two condo sales, far surpassing 09′s first quarter already.

As long as interest rates stay around 5% we should see this momentum carry on. The forecast is for rates to rise to 6% or higher and I believe that will stop the rebound in housing sales. I can only hope we don’t see a fourth quarter like the first quarter or 09

Eastman Home Sales Chart

The latest local sales stats are finally out. For New Hampshire, the average days on market is down and the median sales price is up month over month, up 20%. That’s great news for sellers. The third number that I like to watch is the average selling price per square foot. This number was down month over month but is still well above the five year low set in February of 09′.

Grantham home sales were up month over month mostly due to the strength in Eastman home sales. We have seen a significant jump in activity locally. I know that 2009 started off in a terrible way. As bad as it was in the first few months, I know that we finished strong.

If you do download the PDF, I’ve also included the sales stats for Sullivan and Merrimack Counties. The most interesting stat I see in the county breakdown is that fewer new listings are coming on the market. This seems to be a trend as I have noticed that for several months. If this trend continues, the total inventory will become less, as homes sell there will be fewer and fewer choices and that will translate into pricing stabilization and even strength.

I’ve said this many times before but a shrinking inventory and interest rates that are bound to rise, now is the time to buy. If there is any downward price movement in homes, and I doubt there will be much, it will cost you so much more if you get a higher interest rate.

Sales Stats November 09′

The recent word for the Federal Reserve (12/17/09) stated that short term interest rates will continue to remain low for “an extended period”.

This is interpreted by many that this means months. Well this sounds good but the reality is interest rates have been creeping up. As recently as the week of November 16th-20th interest rates were as low 4.6% for conventional, 30 year fixed rate loans.

As of this week it is hard to find a loan rate under 5%, most rates are closer to 5.25%. This is a minimum of a half point jump in a month. It doesn’t seem like much but a half point is a half point! On $150,000 loan that equals $45.87 a month, $550.44 a year and over the life of the loan the additional cost is over $16,500

So my point is if your out there waiting for home prices to drop just that little bit more because you want to buy at the bottom the rate you might get on your loan my cost you more in the long run. My feeling is from what I see in this local market is we have bottomed and home prices have stabilized. There is just to much inventory for prices to start to rise but I believe the price depreciation we have been seeing is coming to an end.

As we wind down to the end of October some of the first time home buyers I am working with are really starting to scramble. Sure there is talk that the tax credit will be extended but for now we have to act and believe that November 30th will be the last day of eligibility.

Basically we have five weeks from today to close a transaction. Normally it takes at least six weeks for a loan to process add in the the fact that closings are already piling up at the end of the month trying to squeeze one more in is going to be more difficult each and ever day that passes.

The other issue is multiple buyers for the same property. Yes you could save up to $8000 in taxes but if there are more than one buyer for a home that will drive the price of the home up and I bet it will be more than than $8000. Another problem is the better homes will be bought first.

My advice is don’t wait any longer make a decision! The other option is to hope the government steps in an extends the credit. If that happens then we will all get some breathing room.

Today’s news about the jump in foreclosures is not good for anyone. The jump was almost 5% in the July through September quarter vs. the previous April through June quarter. This jump was said to be caused by the rising unemployment level. New Hampshire has seen some layoffs but locally we are in fairly good shape.

So what have we seen in the Eastman Community over the last quarter? The number of condo sales were up and home sales have kept pace with the two previous quarters. For the first half of the year (2009) there were 2 condo sales. This quarter we had 4 sales bringing the total for the year to 6. Home sales for the first half of the year were 15. Add in the 6 home sales this quarter and the total goes to 21.

Not staggering numbers but a good solid quarter. If you add in the contingent home and condo sales it is going to make the fourth quarter the strongest of the year. As of today there are five condo’s pending or contingent and eight homes pending or contingent.

If you look at these numbers, they do not show a slow down in sales but a market that is gaining momentum.

The state wide numbers are finally here. Why it took until the first day of October is beyond me.

The good news is, trends are going in the right direction. Looking back to September 08′ and September 07′ we see that the number of active listings is getting smaller. In 07′ there were over 4,415 listings, 08′ there was 3,969. At the end of August 09′ there were 3,803. I see this as a leveling off of inventory. For sellers that is good news.

The average days on market also seems to be leveling off. For August 09′ the average days on market is 137, just about the same as last month and three days less than Aug. 08 yet higher then 07′ when that average days on market was 126.

The good news for buyers is the trend in home sale price has stared to fall again. What could be the peak for Hew Hampshire housing for 2009, June the median sales price was $200,000. At the end of August the median price was, $192,000 down 4% from the June peak, yet up from the February low over 15%. Yes, I checked my figures, the median home price is up over 15% from the bottom in February.

More good news for sellers, the average selling price per square foot is still trending up! The average is $135.27 up 18% from the Feb. low of $115 per square foot. As good as it sounds the current number is still lower from 08′, down 6%, and down 18% from August 07′.

Now to look at the Eastman Real Estate Market.

What we have seen so far for 2009 is that total sales are down but things seem to be picking up. Year to date there have been six condo sales. Yes this is a low number but in the month of September there were 5 condos that went contingent (under agreement) and one that went pending (sale imminent). In one month we doubled the sales production of the entire year!

Homes sales are no different. For the first 9 months of the year there were 21 homes sold. In the months of August and September we have 7 homes that are contingent or pending. This equals 33% of 2009 home sales, equaled in about six weeks.

Let’s hope the trend continues. It seems like it will, as I am getting daily calls and email questions on my listings. If your a buyer it certainly looks like the bottom has been hit. If your a seller the worst seems to be over and pricing seems to have stabilized and sales look like they are starting to pick up.